Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
